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Tropical Storm John Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Convection associated with John has decreased significantly during
the past several hours as the cyclone moves over progressively
cooler water.  Recent scatterometer data suggests that the maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 40 kt.  Continued weakening
is forecast as John moves over even colder water, and the system is
now forecast to weaken to a depression in less than 24 h and to a
remnant low in 24-36 h.  After that, the remnant low will gradually
spin down until it dissipates early next week.

The initial motion is now 310/9.  This motion should continue with
a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days,
followed by a turn toward the north before the system dissipates.
The new forecast track is near the consensus models through 48 h
and is a little to the west of them from 48-72 h.

Swells associated with John continue to affect portions of the coast
of the Baja California peninsula and are beginning to reach portions
of the southern California coast. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 25.9N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 26.7N 121.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 27.4N 122.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 28.0N 123.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0600Z 28.6N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0600Z 30.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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