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Tropical Storm John Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

John's structure hasn't changed much over the past few hours. A
combination of cool SSTs and stable air appear to be causing
convection to erode in the southern portion of the cyclone's
circulation.  A blend of objective and subjective Dvorak
classifications was used to determine the initial intensity of 60
kt. The tropical storm will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs
for the next couple of days, and further weakening is inevitable.
The intensity models are in good agreement on the forecast weakening
rate, and John is still forecast to become a remnant low within the
next 48 h.

The initial motion continues near 305/14 kt.  There is no change to
the reasoning behind the track forecast, and the new NHC forecast is
merely an update of the previous advisory.  All of the guidance
remains in good agreement that the cyclone should will gradually
turn west-northwestward as it moves around a mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern U.S. for the next few days. By the
end of the forecast period, the remnant low is likely to slow down
to a drift within an area of weak low-level steering flow.

Large swells associated with John are already affecting portions of
the coast of the Baja California peninsula and are forecast to
spread northward and reach portions of the southern California coast
by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 24.5N 117.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 25.5N 119.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 26.6N 121.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 27.4N 122.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 27.9N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1200Z 28.6N 125.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1200Z 29.5N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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