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Hurricane John Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
900 PM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018

After making a bit of a comeback earlier today, the final weakening
phase of John appears to have begun.  The eye is no longer apparent
on visible or infrared imagery and the inner core convection is
becoming more fragmented.  The current intensity is set at 70 kt
based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
John is beginning to cross a significant gradient of SST into cooler
waters and a drier, more stable air mass should cause steady
weakening.  The official intensity forecast is close to the model
consensus.  John is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical
remnant low by Saturday, if not sooner.

The initial motion, 325/14 kt, is about the same as before.  The
track forecast is fairly straightforward.  The tropical cyclone
should continue to move northwestward on the southwestern periphery
of a mid-level ridge for the next day or two.  A gradual turn
toward the left should take place thereafter as the increasingly
shallow system comes more under the influence of the low-level
flow.  Near the end of the forecast period, John's remnants are
likely to slowly meander in a region of weak steering currents.
The track guidance is in good agreement and the official forecast
is slightly north of the previous one.

Although the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of
the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's
outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall
to portions of Baja California Sur through Thursday morning.

John is also producing large swells that are already affecting
portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.
These swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast
of the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern
California by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 23.1N 114.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 24.2N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 25.6N 118.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 26.8N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 27.5N 122.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 28.0N 124.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z 28.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0000Z 29.5N 125.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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