ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane John Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122018 900 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018 The eye of John passed a short distance east of Socorro Island a few hours ago, and it is estimated that the radius of maximum winds narrowly missed the island. An automated station at Socorro recorded a wind gust to 70 kt at 2300 UTC. Although John's inner core convection has weakened somewhat, Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an intensity of 90 kt for this advisory. Although John should remain over warm waters for the next day or so, the deterioration of its convection suggests it is now in a somewhat less favorable atmospheric environment, so no further strengthening is expected. The official intensity forecast is somewhat above the model consensus for the first 1-2 days and near the consensus thereafter. The initial motion estimate remains northwestward or 315/9 kt. The hurricane should continue to move northwestward along the southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge for the next couple of days. Later, the weakening cyclone is likely to turn to the left and eventually move westward following the low-level flow. The new official forecast is in close agreement with the previous one and much of the track model guidance, which remains in good agreement. Although the core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja California Peninsula, an eastward shift of the forecast track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer wind field of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds close to the west coast of the peninsula. In addition, a surge of moisture around John's outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall to portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of John. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 19.2N 111.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 20.4N 112.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 26.6N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 27.0N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z 27.0N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:10:43 UTC