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Hurricane John Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
900 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

John's satellite presentation has not changed significantly during
the past few hours. The tops warmed up significantly earlier, but a
new convective curved band is developing around the eye as we
speak. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 4.0 on the Dvorak scale and
on this basis, the initial intensity is keep at 65 kt in this
advisory. The environment is quite favorable for intensification,
and although the intensity guidance is not as aggressive as earlier,
it still shows a strengthening hurricane, and this is reflected in
the NHC forecast. Beyond 3 days, John should be moving over cooler
waters, and rapid weakening should then begin.  John is very likely
to become a remnant low by day 5 or perhaps earlier.

John continues to move toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 7 kt,
steered by the flow around a strong subtropical ridge extending
from the western United States westward across the Pacific. Since
the steering pattern is well established, track models are tightly
clustered increasing the confidence in the forecast. NHC keeps the
hurricane in the middle of the guidance envelope very close to
the HCCA corrected consensus and is not very different from the
previous one.

The core of John with its strongest winds is forecast to remain well
off the Baja California Peninsula, but having said that, any
deviation to the right of the track or an unexpected increase in the
area of tropical force winds, could bring tropical-storm-force
winds to portions of the west coast of the peninsula. Therefore,
interests in the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this hurricane.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 16.7N 108.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 17.4N 109.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 18.8N 110.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 20.4N 112.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 22.3N 114.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 25.5N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 27.5N 122.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 27.5N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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