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Hurricane John Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

John has continued to intensify since the previous advisory.
Visible satellite images continue to indicate an increase in
banding and very recent pictures show the formation of a banding
eye.  As a result, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt,
which is based on a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 4.0 and UW/CIMSS
objective Dvorak estimates that are close to 65 kt.  John becomes
the fifth hurricane of the 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane
season.

John is forecast to remain within a very favorable environment for
strengthening during the next day or so.  Although some of the
intensity guidance is not quite as aggressive as this morning, the
various rapid intensification indices still show a high likelihood
of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours.  The NHC forecast
once again calls for rapid intensification and brings John to major
hurricane strength within 36 h. The updated NHC intensity forecast
is near the upper-end of the guidance in best agreement with the
latest SHIPS, HCCA, and FSSE models.  After 48 h, John will be
moving over much cooler waters and into a less conducive
thermodynamic environment.  This should result in rapid weakening,
and John is forecast to become a remnant low by day 5.

John is moving northwestward at about 7 kt.  The hurricane is
forecast to move northwestward around the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next few days.  Once
the system weakens and becomes a more shallow cyclone late in the
forecast period, it should turn westward in the low-level flow.
The overall track envelope has shifted eastward this cycle, with
the GFS and HWRF along the eastern edge of the track guidance
envelope while the ECMWF and UKMET are along the western side.
The new NHC forecast has been adjusted eastward and lies between
the ECMWF and the various consensus aids.

Due to the eastward shift in the forecast track and the predicted
increase in the size of John, interests in the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 16.0N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 16.8N 108.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 18.1N 109.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 24.3N 117.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 26.6N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 27.2N 124.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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