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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

The low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the
southwest coast of Mexico has become better defined today and the
associated deep convection has enough organization to classify the
system as a tropical depression, the twelfth tropical cyclone of the
2018 eastern Pacific hurricane season.  The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward at about 6 kt.  The
track and intensity forecast for the depression is complicated due
to the close proximity of Tropical Storm Ileana to its
east-southeast.  Somewhat surprisingly, however, the track guidance
is in relatively good agreement on a general northwestward motion
around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over northern
Mexico during the next several days.  Since the depression is larger
than Ileana, most of the global models suggest that Ileana will move
around the northeastern portion of the new tropical cyclone's
circulation and weaken and dissipate.  The NHC track forecast is
near the middle of the guidance envelope between the slower ECMWF
solution, and the faster GFS, HWRF, and HMON tracks.

The depression is currently over very warm SSTs, within low shear,
and a moist atmosphere.  These factors suggest that the depression
will steadily strengthen and the intensity guidance is quite
aggressive in intensifying the system.  The NHC forecast is slightly
more conservative during the first 36 h since the system is still
quite broad and lacks an inner core.  Regardless, the NHC forecast
brings the system to hurricane strength within 36 h, and shows a
peak intensity of 90 kt in 3 days, which is in agreement with the
HFIP corrected consensus model.  Cool waters and less favorable
thermodynamic conditions should lead to steady to rapid weakening
late in the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 14.6N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 15.2N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 16.9N 108.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 23.2N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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