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Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Infrared and microwave satellite imagery suggest that Ileana's
low-level circulation may have been disrupted by the Sierra
Madre mountain range when the cyclone passed just offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and likely opened up into a wave
between 0000-0400 UTC. However, a strong burst of convection
containing a large area of cloud tops colder than -80 deg C has
redeveloped just northeast of the alleged center during the past
couple of hours, which could help regenerate a new low-level center.
 Thus the system is still being considered to be a tropical cyclone
until more conclusive data to the contrary become available. The
initial intensity of 45 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite current
intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is a faster and uncertain 295/20 kt.
Ileana or its remnants are forecast to maintain a fairly quick
west-northwestward motion around or within the northeastern and
northern portions of Hurricane John's outer circulation, with the
latter system currently located only about 200 nmi southwest of the
much smaller Ileana. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.

The global and regional hurricane models remain in good agreement on
Ileana dissipating in less than 18 hours, due in large part from
strong vertical wind created by the northwesterly outflow associated
with nearby Hurricane John. Until dissipation occurs, however, only
slight weakening is expected due to the recent increase in deep
convection near and to the northeast of the alleged center, and also
as a result of Ileana's relatively fast forward speed of 20 kt.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 19.4N 106.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 20.6N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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