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Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

There have been significant changes to the forecast reasoning for
Ileana.  Recent satellite imagery suggest that the system is being
adversely affected by the large circulation of John much sooner
than anticipated.  In fact, Ileana is looking more like an outer
band of John at this time.  Nonetheless, a recent ASCAT overpass
indicated that Ileana is still a separate system to the
east-northeast of John and continues to support a current intensity
of 55 kt.  However given the evolution of Ileana today, the
previous NHC short-term intensity forecast is reversed.  Ileana
is no longer predicted to become a hurricane, and the tropical
cyclone is likely to dissipate or become absorbed by John's
circulation in 24-36 hours. It should be noted that some models,
such as the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF depict Ileana's demise even sooner
than that.

Since the cloud pattern of Ileana has become rather disorganized,
it is difficult to track a center and the initial motion is an
uncertain 305/15 kt.  The cyclone should move between a mid-level
ridge and the circulation of John until dissipation.  The official
track forecast is a little left of the previous one, but a little to
the right of the track model consensus.

The 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the
scatterometer data.

The hurricane watch for the southwest coast of Mexico is
discontinued.  The tropical storm watch for the extreme southern
Baja California peninsula is also discontinued for Ileana, but a
watch for this same general are may soon be required for John.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 17.0N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 18.2N 105.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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