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Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

A new burst of deep convection developed near the low-level center
beginning around 2200 UTC.  A second ASCAT pass earlier this
afternoon showed winds of 40-45 kt, while SATCON estimates from
UW-CIMSS were a little above 50 kt.  Given these data, Ileana's
maximum winds are estimated to be 45 kt.  The shear is forecast to
be on the order of 15 kt, which is not the most ideal environment
for strengthening, but the cyclone will also be moving over very
warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and through a moisture-laden
environment. Nearly all of the intensity models indicate additional
strengthening, with some, such as the SHIPS and LGEM models,
bringing Ileana near or to hurricane strength in a day or so.  On
the flip side, the GFS and ECMWF have Ileana opening up into a
trough on the northern side of Tropical Storm John in 36-48 hours.
Given the large spread in model scenarios, the updated NHC intensity
forecast is increased only a little from the previous advisory.  A
48-hour forecast is still provided for continuity, but if the GFS
and ECMWF are right, the cyclone could dissipate by that time.

Ileana is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest with an
initial motion of 290/11 kt.  Additional acceleration with a turn
toward the northwest is expected over the next day or so as the
cyclone moves between Tropical Storm John and large-scale ridging
over Mexico and the southern United States.  The updated NHC track
forecast is essentially right along the projection from the previous
advisory, but it is a little faster to account for the speedier GFS,
ECMWF, and HCCA solutions.

The forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official
forecast now graze the coast of southwestern Mexico, and as a
result, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes.  Even though
Ileana is forecast to dissipate after 48 hours, it is not out of
the question that the cyclone could last a little longer, and
interests on the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of the storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 14.3N  99.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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