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Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018

The cyclone has continued to become better organized today, with a
fairly symmetrical shape on geostationary imagery.  Data from a
recent ASCAT overpass showed that the center was embedded about in
the middle of a small CDO-like feature.  The scatterometer data
indicated maximum winds of 35-40 kt, and Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB gave intensity estimates of 35 kt and 45 kt,
respectively.  Blending these various estimates yields a current
intensity of about 40 kt, and the tropical cyclone is thus being
named.  Since the system should be in a warm water and low shear
environment for the next couple of days, some additional
strengthening is forecast.  However a strengthening cyclone is
situated not far to the west of Ileana.  This larger system is
forecast by the ECMWF and GFS models to become the dominant cyclone
in a few days, and cause the tropical storm to dissipate near the
northern side of the larger circulation.  That is the scenario shown
by the official intensity forecast.

There is more confidence in the center position than there was
earlier today, and the estimated initial motion is
west-northwestward or 285/9 kt.  Over the next couple of days,
Ileana is likely to move between a mid-level ridge to its north and
northeast and the larger cyclonic circulation to its west and
southwest.  The official track forecast is on the southern side of
the track guidance envelope.  It is also very close to the latest
HCCA forecast track.

Interests along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties
in the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 13.6N  98.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 14.5N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 16.2N 102.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 17.9N 104.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 19.2N 106.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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