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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  47
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
500 PM HST Sat Aug 11 2018
 
Hector has lost its visible eye this afternoon, while retaining a
bit of a warm spot in infrared imagery. Satellite loop continues to
show that Hector feels the effects of southerly vertical shear,
with great outflow to the north but restricted outflow elsewhere.
Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 5.0/90 kt
(PHFO) to 5.5/102 kt(JTWC/SAB). ADT from UW-CIMSS is 87 kt. Based
on a blend of these numbers, the initial intensity for this
advisory is set at 95 kt, the same as the previous initial
intensity.
 
The initial motion for Hector remains at 310/12 kt as this system
continues its motion toward the northwest between a ridge to the
northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to the northwest. As the
ridge remains stationary and the low becomes better developed, we
expect a slight increase in forward speed as well as a continued
northwest motion. By Monday, the ridge will build to the north of
Hector, inducing a slight turn toward the west that will persist
until the end of the forecast period, at which time Hector is
expected to make a turn back toward the northwest. The updated track
is almost identical to the previous one, with a small nudge to the
right added to the informal track after 120 hours to remain within
the guidance envelope.
 
Southerly shear is expected to increase into the 25 to 30 kt range
through 18 hours, according to SHIPS, prompting us to maintain the
fairly rapid weakening trend through 24 hours. After that, shear
is forecast to decrease, but SSTs are forecast to steadily decrease
as well. SHIPS wants to keep Hector at hurricane strength through
120 hours, while HWRF has changed its tune by weakenening Hector to
tropical storm status by 24 hours before restrengthening on days 4
and 5. In contrast, ECMWF gradually weakens Hector to a remnant low
on day 5. The official forecast is a mix between HWRF and and
ECMWF, describing a fairly rapid weakening through 24 hours,
followed by more gradual weakening through the rest of the forecast
period.

Given the close approach to the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Hector
is forecast to make on Sunday and Monday, a Tropical Storm Watch
remains posted for the area from Lisianski Island to Pearl and
Hermes Atoll. A Tropical Storm Watch is now also in effect for
Midway and Kure Atolls.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 21.2N 171.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 22.4N 173.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 23.9N 176.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 25.0N 178.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 26.0N 178.2E   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 28.1N 172.2E   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 30.4N 166.2E   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 35.5N 162.1E   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Powell
 
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