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Hurricane HECTOR

Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
500 PM HST Fri Aug 10 2018
While still an impressive hurricane, the satellite presentation of
Hector has degraded slightly with some warming of the cloud tops
surrounding the eye. Dvorak current intensity numbers from HFO, SAB,
and JTWC remain at 6.0/115 kt, and CIMSS ADT held at 122 kt. Since
Dvorak final T numbers from HFO and CIMSS ADT dropped since six
hours ago and the satellite presentation has degraded slightly, the
initial intensity has been lowered to 115 kt. 

Hector maintained more of a westerly component to its motion than
expected today and lost some forward speed. The initial motion is
set at west-northwest (290 degrees) at 12 kt. A low to mid level
ridge far to the north will steer Hector along a similar motion in
the short term, and as the ridge is weakened slightly late tonight
and Saturday, Hector will make a turn toward the northwest. This
general motion toward the northwest will continue into Wednesday.
The forecast track was nudged to the left through the next three
days due to the slight delay in the turn toward the west-northwest
today. The forecast track runs near the middle of the guidance
envelope and is close to the TVCN through Monday. Thereafter, the
forecast track lies on the right side of the guidance envelope,
even after considerable adjustment to the left.

Slow weakening is expected during the next several days. Nearby SSTs
are holding around 28C, but Hector is beginning to encounter
southwesterly winds aloft ahead of an upper level trough centered
less than 800 miles to the northwest. As Hector advances toward the
upper level trough during the next couple of days, southwesterly
vertical wind shear should more than double from approximately 15 kt
at this time to about 30 kt. This, along with slowly decreasing SSTs
by Sunday, is expected to result in weakening of Hector. The
forecast rate of weakening is similar to the statistical and
dynamical models through the next 36 hours of increasing vertical
wind shear. From Sunday onward, the model spread increases
significantly as shear relaxes, and the forecast was held closer to
IVCN and SHIPS near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Given the close approach to the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands on
Sunday and Monday, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from
Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Interests on Midway and
Kure Atolls should monitor the progress of Hector.
INIT  11/0300Z 18.3N 168.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 19.1N 169.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 20.7N 171.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 22.6N 173.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 24.5N 176.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 27.2N 178.4E   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 29.5N 173.0E   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 31.7N 168.0E   55 KT  65 MPH
Forecaster Wroe