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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 09 2018
 
Hector continues to be a very impressive hurricane this evening.
The distinct eye has warmed, while the cloud top temperatures in
the surrounding eyewall have cooled. As a result, all of the
satellite fix agencies (PHFO, SAB and JTWC) provided subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates of T6.0/115 kt. In addition, the UW/CIMSS
ADT increased to T6.0/115 kt. Based on all of this guidance, the
initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt. 

Hector's latest movement is 280/14 kt. The hurricane continues to
move just north of due west to the south of a mid-level ridge. The
western end of the ridge is forecast to weaken as a low pressure
system develops near the International Dateline during the next day
or two. This is expected to result in a gradual turn toward the
west-northwest on Friday, followed by a more northwestward track
from Friday night through this weekend. The forecast mostly follows
the previous advisory package though 48 hours. After that, the
latest forecast track was shifted slightly north from days 3 through
5. These subtle changes in the track were due to nudging toward the
HWRF, as well as the consensus models, such as TVCN and GFEX.
 
The latest intensity forecast, which is close to the previous
forecast beyond 12 hours, indicates additional slight
intensification through Friday morning. After that, we are expecting
gradual weakening from late Friday through Saturday evening. The
weakening trend is more significant beyond 48 hours as Hector moves
into an area of increasing vertical wind shear, as well as cooler
water temperatures. The current intensity forecast is also in line
with HWRF, HMON, and CTC2, which have verified the best so far.
These models also show a faster weakening after 48 hours, but the
forecast shows a more conservative weakening trend for now.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Johnston Island. If the
expected turn toward the west-northwest does not occur, tropical
storm conditions are possible there starting late Friday. Elsewhere,
interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway and
Kure Atolls and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west
of French Frigate Shoals should monitor the progress of Hector.
Based on the latest forecast, Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches
may be needed for these islands by late Friday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 17.4N 164.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 17.9N 166.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 18.9N 168.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 20.3N 170.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 22.4N 172.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 26.5N 177.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/0600Z 30.5N 177.5E   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 33.5N 174.5E   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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