ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 39 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018 500 PM HST Thu Aug 09 2018 Cloud top temperatures surrounding the eye of Hector have cooled and the overall symmetry in the satellite images has improved since six hours ago. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 5.5/102 kt from PHFO and JTWC, and 6.0/115 kt from SAB. CIMSS ADT increased at bit to 5.9/112 kt at 0000 UTC. Based on a blend of the objective and subjective estimates and the overall improvement in appearance, the initial intensity has been increased to 110 kt. Hector's movement has been 275/15 kt and this is the initial motion for this forecast package. Hector continues to move westward to the south of a mid-level ridge. The ridge is forecast to weaken as a low pressure system cuts off near the Dateline over the next couple of days. This should result in a gradual turn toward the west-northwest tonight and Friday, followed by a more northwestward track. The latest objective aids are in good agreement with this scenario. The forecast mostly follows the previous package though 48 hours, then was shifted slightly north at 72 and 96 hours to follow a slight northward shift in the dynamical consensus. In the face of recent realities, the intensity forecast calls for slight strengthening of Hector tonight, followed by steady weakening after 24 hours. The increase in strength is in line with HWRF, HMON, and CTC2 which have verified the best so far. These models also show a faster weakening after 48 hours but the forecast shows a more conservative weakening trend for now. The weakening appears to be mainly in response to increasing vertical shear. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Johnston Island. If the expected turn toward the west-northwest does not occur, tropical storm conditions are possible there starting late Friday. Elsewhere, interests in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway and Kure Atolls and the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west of French Frigate Shoals should monitor the progress of Hector. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.1N 162.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 17.5N 165.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 18.5N 168.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 19.7N 170.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.7N 172.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 25.4N 176.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 28.5N 178.0E 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 32.0N 174.0E 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Kodama NNNN
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