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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
500 AM HST Thu Aug 09 2018
 
The eye of Hector warmed and become much better defined in infrared
satellite imagery overnight. As a result, the satellite fix agencies
provided subjective Dvorak satellite-based intensity estimates
of near 102 kt. The latest ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS is near
105 kt. Based on the improved appearance of the hurricane, we have
increased the initial intensity to 105 kt for this advisory. Hector
has been traveling nearly due west early this morning, so the latest
motion is 270/14 kt. 
 
Hector is expected to continue moving westward along the southern
periphery of a strong mid-level ridge located north of the main
Hawaiian Islands. This ridge is forecast to move little during the
next day or two. Hector is expected to gradually turn toward the
west-northwest in 24-36 hours as it reaches the southwestern
periphery of the ridge. After that, a gradual turn toward the
northwest is possible during 48-72 hours. The latest track forecast
lies close to the previous forecast and a tightly-packed guidance
envelope through day 3. Increased guidance spread on days 4 and 5
arises due to differences in the forecast strength and position of
the ridge, and a developing low aloft to the northwest of Hector.
The latest forecast adjusts the track slightly to the right of the
previous forecast. This is based on the latest consensus guidance,
including the TVCN and GFEX, as well as the HWRF.
 
Since Hector has strengthened slightly overnight, we see no obvious
impediments to it maintaining about the same intensity during the
next 36 hours. The ICON, SHIPS, and HWRF seem to agree with this
scenario. After that, some gradual weakening is possible from days 2
through 5 as it starts to encounter cooler water temperatures
and increasing southwesterly shear. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for Johnston Island. If the expected turn toward the
west-northwest does not occur, tropical storm conditions are
possible there starting late Friday. Elsewhere, interests in the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, including Midway and Kure Atolls and
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west of Pearl/Hermes,
should monitor the progress of Hector. Note, this does not include
the main Hawaiian Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 16.6N 160.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 16.8N 162.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 17.2N 164.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 17.9N 167.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 18.9N 169.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 21.5N 174.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 25.0N 179.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 28.5N 176.0E   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Houston
 
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