ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 35 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018 500 PM HST Wed Aug 08 2018 Hector continues to have the satellite appearance of a strong hurricane, with cold cloud tops surrounding a well-developed eye, while radar reflectivity data highlight a concentric eyewall structure typically seen in intense hurricanes. Subjective satellite-based intensity estimates range from 102 kt to 115 kt, while ADT from UW-CIMSS is near 100 kt. Hurricane Hunters from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron completed their final mission into Hector this morning, and sampled peak flight-level winds near 106 kt. With little overall change in satellite appearance since the aircraft departed, the initial intensity for this advisory is maintained at 100 kt. The initial motion for this advisory is 275/14 kt as a mid-level ridge north of the cyclone continues to support a westward trajectory to the south of the main Hawaiian islands. The ridge will move little through Thursday, and the high-confidence short-term track forecast keeps Hector moving steadily west. Hector is expected to gradually turn toward the west-northwest in 36-48 hours as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the ridge, with a more decided turn toward the northwest expected after 72 hours. The updated track forecast lies close to the previous forecast and a tightly-packed guidance envelope through day 3. Increased guidance spread on days 4 and 5 arises due to differences in the forecast strength and position of the ridge, and a developing low aloft to the northwest of Hector. With the previous forecast track near the middle of the guidance envelope, and close to the high-performing TVCN consensus, little change was made. Rather unusual to witness concentric eyewalls from a land-based Hawaii radar as has occurred with Hector today. While interesting from a science viewpoint, this adds some complexity to the short- term intensity and wind field forecast, as an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) could soon follow. This process would lead to a temporary weakening of the cyclone, and some changes in the wind field. With uncertainty surrounding the timing and eventuality of any ERC, the intensity forecast anticipates little overall change over the next couple of days as Hector remains in a light shear environment with SSTs near 27C. Increasing southwesterly shear in the later forecast periods and decreasing SSTs toward day 5 will likely lead to weakening. The official forecast is close to SHIPS guidance, and follows trends indicated by FSSE and IVCN, but is not as aggressive in indicating weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.7N 156.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.7N 159.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 16.9N 161.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 17.3N 164.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 18.1N 167.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 20.3N 172.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 23.0N 177.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 26.0N 178.0E 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Aug-2019 14:21:23 UTC