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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
500 PM HST Tue Aug 07 2018
 
The last reconnaissance pass through Hector showed maximum flight
level winds of 124 kt in the northern eyewall, as well as
believable SFMR winds of 111 kt. This is the justification for
maintaining Hector at 115 kt as of this advisory. Over the last few
hours, the eye temperatures on IR imagery have been cooling, which
may signal the beginning of the anticipated weakening trend.

The longer term motion remains 280/14, though there are perhaps
some signs of a more due westward motion over the past few hours.
The track philosophy has not changed, though Hector's persistent
slow trek toward higher latitudes now will bring the tropical storm
force wind field associated with the hurricane close enough to the
Big Island to necessitate issuing a tropical storm warning. The
forecast track has been adjusted slightly to the north during the
next 48 hours, but still lies very close to the guidance consensus. 
After 48 hours, Hector is expected to begin gradually gaining
latitude as it passes by the anticyclone and comes under increasing
influence of an upper trough to the west of 170W.
 
Hector is in a low shear environment, but only marginally warm sea
surface temperatures. This is expected to yield a gradual weakening
trend for the next couple of days. Afterward, the low-shear
environment continues, but water temperatures gradually warm, which
may allow Hector to restrengthen a bit. Toward the end of the
forecast period, wind shear may start to affect the hurricane, and
the official forecast initiates a new weakening trend. The overall
confidence in the intensity forecast is somewhat low due to these
competing factors. As before, our intensity forecast tends to more
closely follow the ICON guidance, which shows Hector remaining
stronger than SHIPS guidance indicates.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 16.6N 150.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 16.8N 153.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 17.0N 156.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 17.1N 159.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 17.3N 162.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 17.9N 167.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 19.5N 172.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 21.7N 177.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
 
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