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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 07 2018

Hector remains an impressive hurricane this morning. Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunters found a 16 nm diameter eye with maximum
flight level winds of 123 kt in the NW quadrant. The maximum SFMR
wind was 119 kt, but this was near some suspect data. We have
maintained a current intensity of 115 kt for this advisory as a
compromise, which is also in reasonably good agreement with various
subjective and automated satellite estimates. Note that we have
adjusted the wind radii in the northeast quadrant a little larger
based on reconnaissance flight level winds.

Hector continues to move just north of due west, 280 degrees at 14
kt. The forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with tightly
clustered track guidance. Hector is expected to continue at its
current heading for the next 6-12 hours or so, and then assume a due
westward motion as a deep layer anticylcone to the northeast of
Hawaii builds westward. After 48 hours, Hector is expected to begin
gradually gaining latitude as it passes by the anticyclone and comes
under increasing influence of an upper trough to the west of 170W. 

Hector is in a low shear environment, but only marginally warm sea
surface temperatures. This is expected to yield a gradual weakening
trend for the next couple of days. Afterward, the low-shear
environment continues but water temperatures gradually warm, which
may allow Hector to strengthen a bit. Toward the end of the
forecast period, wind shear may start to affect the hurricane, and
the official forecast initiates a new weakening trend. The overall
confidence in the intensity forecast is somewhat low due to these
competing factors. Our intensity forecast tends to follow the ICON
which shows Hector remaining stronger than SHIPS guidance
indicates.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 16.4N 149.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 16.5N 151.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 16.6N 154.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 16.7N 157.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 16.8N 160.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 17.5N 166.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 18.8N 171.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 21.0N 176.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
 
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