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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP102018
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 05 2018
 
The satellite presentation of Hurricane Hector remains impressive 
this evening, with a well defined eye surrounded by a large ring of 
-70 to -80 degree Celsius cloud tops. The latest subjective Dvorak 
current intensity estimates from PHFO and SAB came in at 6.0 (115 
knots), while the Advanced Dvorak technique yielded 6.6 (130
knots). Given that Hector's satellite presentation has changed
little since the previous advisory, the initial intensity is held at
120 knots which is more or less a blend of the available intensity
estimates. Hector has continued to track westward and has picked up
a little speed since the previous advisory. The initial motion of
Hector is set at 280/13 kt.

The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered and brings 
Hector just north of due west over the next 36 to 48 hours due to a 
weakness in the subtropical ridge just to the northeast of the 
Hawaiian islands. Beyond 48 hours, the subtropical ridge is
forecast to build to the north of the Hawaiian Island chain, and
this should result in the track of Hector moving due westward from
48 to 120 hours. The new official forecast track is very close to
the model consensus and nearly identical to the previous official
forecast.

Hector will remain in favorable low shear environment through the 
forecast period, but there are some factors that should lead to 
gradual weakening beyond 24 hours. The hurricane will be traveling 
over marginal sea surface temperatures around 27C for the next few 
days, before the SSTs increase to around 28C to the south of the 
Hawaiian Islands. Additionally and likely more importantly, very
dry mid-level air will begin to surround the storm Monday night,
and this is expected to lead to gradual weakening of the system
from Monday night through Wednesday. The intensity of the system is
then expected to level off Wednesday night through Friday as it 
encounters the higher SSTs.  The intensity forecast is very close
to the previous forecast with some additional weight given to the 
dynamical models which have been performing better with this system 
than the statistical guidance.

While the official forecast track continues to lie to the south of 
the Hawaiian islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the 
forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts to
the state of Hawaii. Now is a good time for everyone in the
Hawaiian Islands to ensure that they have their hurricane plan in
place. For additional information on any potential impacts from
Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather
Forecast Office here in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl .
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 14.9N 140.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 15.3N 142.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 15.8N 145.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 16.3N 148.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 16.7N 151.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 16.8N 158.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 17.0N 164.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 17.6N 169.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
 
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