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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018

There have been some subtle changes in Hector during the past
several hours with satellite imagery indicating a slight disruption
of the eyewall convective pattern.  This appears to be due to a
slowly evolving eyewall cycle, which can only be readily seen by
high-resolution microwave data such as AMSR2, due to Hector's
small size.  Intensity estimates remain virtually the same, so the
wind speed is held at 105 kt.

Due the eyewall cycle, future intensity changes are harder to
predict.  Since Hector is forecast to remain in a favorable
large-scale environment, albeit with marginal SSTs, little overall
change in strength is indicated during the next couple of days.
Hector's small size could also make it prone to short-term
fluctuations in intensity, up or down, like the one observed
yesterday. In about 3 days, Hector is forecast to move over somewhat
cooler SSTs and into a drier environment, so gradual weakening is
shown.  Little change was made to the previous NHC wind speed
prediction, near or just above the model consensus.

Hector is locked into a westward motion of 270/10 kt. A large
subtropical ridge to the north should steer the hurricane generally
westward throughout the forecast period, with Hector gradually
gaining some latitude on Sunday and beyond due to a weakness in the
ridge.  Overall the model guidance is in much better agreement than
yesterday, and only cosmetic changes were made to previous track
forecast.

There is the potential for Hector to affect portions of the Hawaiian
Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to specify
the magnitude of any impacts or where they could occur.  This is a
good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.  For additional information on any
potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to
products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 14.2N 132.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 14.2N 134.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 14.4N 136.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 14.7N 138.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 15.1N 141.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 16.1N 147.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 16.6N 153.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 17.0N 158.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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