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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018

Hector has maintained an impressive satellite presentation so far
this morning.  The clear eye of the major hurricane is surrounded by
a ring of cloud tops colder than -75 deg C and its outflow has
become well established in all quadrants. Recent satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT are in good agreement
and support an initial intensity of 105 kt.

The hurricane will remain in a favorable environment for the next 48
to 72 h, so the NHC forecast keeps Hector as a fairly steady-state
major hurricane, close to the HWRF model. In reality, while recent
SSMIS and AMSU microwave data do not suggest that another eyewall
replacement cycle is imminent, it would not be surprising if one did
occur sometime in the next couple of days, causing the cyclone to at
least briefly weaken.  Hector's small size could also make it
particularly prone to short-term fluctuations in intensity, up or
down, like the one observed yesterday. By day 4, Hector is forecast
to move over somewhat cooler SSTs, and into a drier environment, so
gradual weakening is anticipated. Confidence in this portion of the
forecast is fairly low since there large spread in the intensity
guidance.

Hector has continued to move steadily westward, and the initial
motion estimate is 270/10 kt.  A large subtropical ridge to the
north should steer the hurricane generally westward through the
entire forecast period.  There is still uncertainty as to how much
latitude Hector will gain in the 2 to 4 day time frame due to a
slight weakness in the ridge, however the spread of the track
guidance has generally decreased since yesterday. The official
track forecast has been nudged very slightly northward, in line with
the latest consensus guidance, but overall is very similar to the
previous advisory.

There is the potential for Hector to affect portions of the Hawaiian
Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to specify
the magnitude of any impacts or where they could occur.  This is a
good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.  For additional information on any
potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to
products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 14.3N 131.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 14.3N 133.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 14.5N 135.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 14.7N 137.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 15.0N 140.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 16.0N 145.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 16.5N 151.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 17.0N 157.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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