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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018

Hector has continued to quickly strengthen since the last advisory,
with the eye becoming more distinct and the cloud tops in the
eyewall cooling to near -80C.  Satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB were 102 kt near 00Z, and given the increasing
organization since that time the initial intensity is increased to
105 kt.

The initial motion is now 275/10.  There is again little change to
the track forecast philosophy, as a large subtropical ridge to the
north of the hurricane should steer Hector generally westward
during the forecast period.  Due to a weakness in the ridge, the
hurricane is forecast to gain some latitude from 36-96 h.  While the
guidance agrees with this scenario, there is a significant amount of
spread between the GFS and NAVGEM on the north side of the guidance
envelope and the UKMET and ECMWF on the south side.  The consensus
models are in the center of the envelope, and the new forecast is
close to these in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus.
The new forecast is little changed from the previous track.

Recent satellite microwave data show that Hector is developing an
outer eyewall, which suggests the hurricane should undergo an
eyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so.  This makes it
a little unclear how long the current intensification will last.
The intensity forecast will show a little more strengthening during
the next 12 hr followed by little change in strength through 36 h.
The HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models show a little more
intensification at 48-60 h, and the official forecast follows suit.
After that time, while Hector should remain in a light-shear,
warm-water environment, entrainment of drier air should lead to a
gradual weakening of the cyclone.  Overall, the new intensity
forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

There is the potential for Hector to bring some impacts to portions
of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too
soon to specify the magnitude of the impacts or where they could
occur.  This is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.  For additional
information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii,
please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office
in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 14.2N 130.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 14.3N 132.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 14.2N 134.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 14.5N 139.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 16.5N 150.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 16.5N 156.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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