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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018

Satellite images indicate that Hector is re-strengthening.  The eye
has cleared out again on visible imagery, with an increase in
deep convection in the eyewall.  Perhaps this shouldn't be a
surprise because of Hector's small size, since these systems
are known to fluctuate up and down rapidly.  The initial intensity
is set to 90 kt, between the 75 kt SATCON from CIMSS and a 102 kt
estimate from SAB.  The large-scale environment would seem to favor
some intensification of Hector during the next couple of days, with
SSTS of 27-27.5C, light shear, and moderate levels of mid-level
moisture forecast.  The new NHC forecast favors the dynamical models
over the more statistical-based guidance and shows steady
strengthening. This should be considered a low-confidence forecast
due to the divergent guidance and the small size of Hector.  At the
end of the forecast, some weakening is shown due to increasing
dryness in the mid-levels and a potential increase in shear.

The initial motion remains 270/10 kt.  There has been no change to
the synoptic steering pattern.  A large subtropical ridge should
push the hurricane westward for the next couple of days.  Due to a
weakness in the ridge in 2 or 3 days, Hector is forecast to gain
some latitude in the long range.  Model guidance has been
oscillating northward and southward with the forecast in the Central
Pacific, with the latest guidance a little faster and farther south.
The NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, but not as far south
as the new model consensus.

There is the potential for Hector to bring some impacts to portions
of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too
soon to specify the magnitude of the impacts or where they could
occur.  This is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.  For additional
information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii,
please products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in
Honolulu.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 14.1N 129.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 14.1N 131.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 14.1N 133.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 14.1N 135.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 14.2N 137.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 15.2N 142.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 16.2N 148.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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