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Hurricane Hector Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018
800 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018

Well, so much for the shear.  Satellite images indicate that Hector
is rapidly intensifying and has recently formed a small eye.  The
initial wind speed is set to 75 kt, based on the TAFB Dvorak
estimate.  While there still could be some shear over the next day
or so, it seems apparent now that the highest shear should stay
north of the tropical cyclone, leaving Hector in a pocket of lighter
winds.  The main inhibiting factor is expected to be more marginal
SSTs, with temperatures below 27C in the path of the hurricane.
The official forecast assumes the current intensification trend
will last for another 12 hours or so, then levels off due to the
more marginal waters, similar to the latest SHIPS/LGEM forecasts.
It is worth noting that the regional hurricane models show an
unrealistic solution of significant weakening in the short term,
and have been disregarded.  In the longer range, the upper-level
environment and water temperatures are more than sufficient to
support a major hurricane, and the new forecast reflects these
conditions.

Hector has turned westward and accelerated, now moving 12 kt.
A large subtropical ridge is forecast to build westward over the
next several days, keeping the cyclone on this general course into
the Central Pacific.  The ridge could weaken somewhat by day 5,
causing a more west-northwestward motion early next week.  Little
change was made to the previous official track forecast, although it
is a shade faster at the end of the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 14.2N 124.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 14.3N 126.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 14.3N 128.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 14.2N 131.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 14.0N 133.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 13.6N 138.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 13.8N 143.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 14.5N 148.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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