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Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092018
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

The depression is not well organized at this time, with the center
likely located between two unimpressive areas of convection.
Microwave data also suggest that the circulation is elongated
northeast-to-southwest, which is another sign that the cyclone is
struggling.  Dvorak classifications haven't changed, so the initial
wind speed remains 30 kt.  Little change in strength is forecast
due to moderate northwesterly shear, with weakening likely in a
couple of days due to persistent moderate or strong shear.  The new
intensity forecast is lower than the previous prediction beyond 36
hours, and the cyclone is now forecast to become post tropical by 96
hours. Given the shear and disorganized nature of the depression, it
remains possible that this forecast is conservative, and that
dissipation will occur sooner than currently forecast.

Satellite and microwave data indicate the depression has slowed
down, now moving westward at about 10 kt.  This general track is
forecast for the next several days, with the system gaining some
latitude in the Central Pacific basin due to the orientation of
the subtropical ridge.  The UKMET and ECMWF models are farther
north than the rest of the guidance, possibly due to slight
binary interaction with Tropical Storm Gilma.  Overall, the new
forecast is not too different than the previous one, although
it has been adjusted to the northeast at long range to account for
the models mentioned above.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 10.7N 137.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 10.6N 139.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 10.5N 141.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 10.7N 143.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 11.0N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 11.9N 150.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  31/0600Z 13.0N 155.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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