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Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Gilma is on its way in becoming a remnant low.  Very strong
west-northwesterly shear has pushed all of the associated convection
well away from the center, leaving a completely exposed low-level
swirl.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with a
blend of the Dvorak Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Now
that Gilma is located to the west of an upper-level trough axis,
strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to continue.  These
hostile winds aloft, plus marginal SSTs and dry air, should cause
Gilma to become a remnant low later today and ultimately degenerate
into a trough in 2 to 3 days.

The depression is moving westward at 12 kt, steered by the flow on
the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  This general motion
with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected until the
system dissipates.  Little change was made to the previous NHC
track forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 15.9N 138.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 16.0N 140.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/1200Z 15.9N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  31/0000Z 15.7N 144.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/1200Z 15.5N 147.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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