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Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Gilma continues to generate convection to the east of the exposed
low-level center despite the ongoing 30 kt or more of westerly
vertical wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-40
kt range, and the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt based on
these data and the unchanged organization since the last advisory.

The initial motion is now 280/13.  Gilma is expected to move
westward and eventually south of westward during the next 2-3 days
in the low-level flow associated with the subtropical ridge to the
north.  There has been a slight southward shift of the guidance
since the last advisory, and the forecast track is thus nudged a
little southward.  The new track continues to lie close to the
various consensus models.

An upper-level trough located over the cyclone has been providing
support for the central convection to persist despite the shear.
The large-scale models forecast that Gilma will move west of the
trough axis during the next 12-24 h, which will expose the tropical
cyclone to 40-50 kt northwesterly upper-level winds and an
environment of upper-level convergence.  These developments should
bring an end to the central convection and cause Gilma to decay to
a remnant low.  The remnants of the cyclone should weaken to a
trough between 48-72 h as indicated by the large-scale models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 16.1N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 16.2N 138.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 16.1N 140.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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