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Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
800 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

The satellite presentation of Gilma has not changed much over the
past several hours.  Strong west-northwesterly shear continues to
affect tropical cyclone, and deep convection is limited to the
southeast quadrant of the otherwise exposed low-level circulation.
The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT
data, but recent Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
suggest this could be generous.

Virtually no change has been made to the track or intensity
forecasts.  All of the dynamical models indicate that the shear
affecting Gilma will increase through the next several days, and
the cyclone will be moving into a drier environment.  Continued
weakening is therefore still forecast, in line with all of the
intensity guidance.  While the NHC forecast currently shows that
Gilma will be a closed low through 72 hours, it is entirely possible
that Gilma will dissipate sooner than currently indicated due to
the hostile environment.

As expected, Gilma has slowed slightly and the initial
motion estimate is now 280/13 kt.  A continued west to
west-northwest heading with a decrease in forward speed is still
forecast for the next few days while the shallow depression is
steered primarily by the low-level flow associated with the
subtropical high to the north-northeast.  The NHC forecast remains
in close agreement with the various track consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 15.0N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 15.2N 132.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 15.7N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 16.2N 136.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 16.5N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0000Z 16.5N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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