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Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Northwesterly shear has disrupted the already poorly organized
cloud pattern associated with Gilma. The center is now exposed and
located on the northwestern edge of the convection, and T-numbers
are only 2.0 on the Dvorak scale. Earlier ASCAT data supported
tropical storm strength, however, given that no new ASCAT
information is available, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt in
this advisory. Gilma could maintain its current strength until
stronger westerly shear becomes established over the cyclone. Shear
and cooler waters will induce weakening, and Gilma is expected to
become a remnant low in 3 days or earlier. Dissipation is
expected therafter. The official forecast follows the intensity
consensus trend.

Gilma is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. The
cyclone is on the southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge.
This steering flow pattern is forecast to persist, so no change in
track is anticipated. The NHC forecast is located between the HFIP
HCCA model and the simple track consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 14.9N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 15.0N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 15.2N 132.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 17.5N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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