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Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018

The cloud pattern associated with the cyclone has lost organization
during the past several hours, with the low-level center now located
at the northern edge of a smaller area of convection.  Despite the
ragged appearance in satellite imagery, recent ASCAT-A data showed
an area of 35 kt winds to the northeast of the center.  Based on
this, the cyclone has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gilma.

The initial motion is 285/14.  Gilma should be steered westward to
west-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level
ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States.  As
the cyclone decays to a shallow remnant low late in the period, a
more westward motion is expected.  The new track forecast is
similar to, but a little faster than the previous forecast, and it
is a blend of the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus
aids.

Gilma is located just to the east of an upper-level trough, which
the large-scale models forecast to move or re-form westward just
ahead of the storm for the next couple of days.  This evolution is
expected to keep the cyclone in an area of moderate vertical wind
shear, but with some upper-level divergence to maintain convection.
Based on this, the intensity forecast shows a little more
strengthening in agreement with the overall trend of the intensity
guidance.  After 36-48 h, Gilma is likely to move into strong and
dry northwesterly upper-level flow west of the upper-level trough
axis, which should lead to weakening and eventual dissipation.  The
new intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 120 h in agreement
with the dynamical models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 14.4N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 14.6N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 15.0N 130.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 15.5N 132.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 16.1N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 17.5N 138.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  31/0600Z 17.5N 143.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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