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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018

Fabio is looking more ragged on satellite imagery this afternoon.
Cloud tops have warmed and Dvorak classifications from all
agencies are decreasing quickly.  The initial intensity has been
lowered to 45 kt, and given the degradation of the cloud pattern
over the past few hours, this could be generous.  The cyclone will
remain embedded within its current stable environment and over cool
SSTs for the next few days which will cause it to weaken further.
The NHC intensity forecast now calls for Fabio to become a tropical
depression within 12 hours and become a remnant low between 24 and
36 hours.  The remnant low will then gradually spin down over the
following few days, eventually degenerating into a weak trough
around day 4 or 5.

The initial motion estimate is 295/15, and Fabio will likely
continue on its current west-northwest to northwest heading for the
next 24 hours or so.  A decrease in forward speed and a gradual
turn toward the west are likely after Fabio becomes a remnant low
and becomes steered primarily by the surrounding low-level easterly
flow.  There is a little more spread in the model guidance this
advisory cycle, with the speed being the main source of
uncertainty, and the overall envelope has shifted south. Since I
have little reason to favor any one model, the official track
forecast generally lies between HCCA and the previous advisory, and
it has been shifted only slightly toward the south throughout the
forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 20.6N 126.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 21.6N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 22.7N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 23.5N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z 24.1N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1800Z 25.0N 139.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1800Z 25.5N 143.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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