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Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 04 2018

Cloud tops continue to warm near the center of Fabio, and recent
microwave satellite data indicate that the inner core has collapsed
with an eye no longer evident. As a result of the convective
erosion, Dvorak satellite classifications have decreased and only
supported about 75 kt at 0000 UTC. Since that time, there has been
further degradation of the convective cloud pattern, so the initial
intensity has been set a little lower at 70 kt.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 295/12 kt. The
NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on Fabio maintaining a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion around the southwestern
periphery of a stagnant, deep-layer subtropical ridge throughout
the forecast period. The new NHC forecast is just a little south of
the previous advisory track, and lies close a blend of the HCCA and
FSSE models.

Fabio is already currently located over 24 deg C sea-surface
temperatures with colder waters ahead of the cyclone. By 48 h, the
SSTs will be near 19 deg C. As a result, rapid weakening is expected
throughout the forecast period, with Fabio becoming a tropical storm
on Thursday and degenerating into a remnant low on Friday. Although
remnant low status is shown at 120 h, it is quite possible that
dissipation could occur before then due to the cyclone having been
located over 20 deg C or less SSTs for more than 48 hours. The new
intensity forecast follows the weakening trend of the previous
advisory, and is similar to an average of the more aggressive
weakening trends of the HCCA and FSSE consensus models, which show
dissipation at or shortly after 96 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 18.4N 122.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 19.4N 124.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 20.8N 126.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 22.1N 129.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  07/0000Z 23.2N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z 24.9N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0000Z 26.2N 138.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/0000Z 27.1N 141.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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