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Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 04 2018

The convective structure of Fabio has continued to degrade since
this morning.  A pair of SSMIS passes around 1500 UTC showed that
deep convection was mostly limited to the eastern half of the
hurricane, and the eye has since filled in on IR imagery.  The
initial intensity has been lowered to 80 kt based on a blend of
data-T and CI numbers from SAB and TAFB and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT
CI number.  The hurricane will be moving over progressively cooler
SSTs and through a stable environment for the next several days,
resulting in steady to rapid weakening.  Little change has been made
to the NHC intensity forecast, which still closely follows the
intensity consensus and shows Fabio becoming a remnant low within 72
h.

Likewise, no significant changes have been made to the official
track forecast.  The hurricane is still moving west-northwestward,
or 295/13 kt.  As long as Fabio remains a tropical cyclone, it
should continue on a similar heading and speed as it moves along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the northeast.  Once
the cyclone becomes a remnant low, Fabio will likely slow down as it
becomes steered primarily by the low-level trade wind flow,
eventually causing it to begin a turn toward the west.  The
dynamical track guidance remains in very good agreement on the track
of Fabio, and the NHC forecast is very close to TVCN and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 17.9N 121.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 18.9N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 20.3N 125.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 21.6N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 22.9N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 25.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1800Z 26.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1800Z 27.5N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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