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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
900 AM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018
 
The satellite presentation of Fabio has continued to improve this
morning.  A large curved convective band wraps around the the
western and southern portions of the circulation and a CDO feature
appears to be developing. The initial intensity has been increased
to 45 kt, which is based on consensus Dvorak T3.0s from TAFB and
SAB.  Environmental conditions consisting of warm water, low
vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere should
allow Fabio to strengthen quite quickly during the next couple of
days.  In fact, the SHIPS, LGEM, FSSE, and HFIP Corrected Consensus
models all predict rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 48
hours.  The official forecast, while not quite as aggressive as the
SHIPS/LGEM models, does predict rapid strengthening over the next
couple of days and brings Fabio to a 110-kt major hurricane by 48
hours.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is significantly higher
than the previous advisory during the first 36 to 48 h, but shows a
peak intensity only slightly above the previous forecast.  There is
an usually large spread of peak wind speeds from the intensity aids
between 48-72 hours, and the NHC forecast is slightly above the
consensus, close to HCCA, but not as high as the FSSE and SHIPS
models.  After 72, Fabio is forecast to move over cooler waters and
into a more stable environment which is likely to result in rapid
weakening.
 
The initial motion remains 285/11.  Fabio is located to the south
of a well-established mid-level ridge that extends westward from
northern Mexico.  This ridge should keep the cyclone on a general
west-northwestward heading through much of the forecast period.
The track guidance is in good agreement and the NHC track is near
the various consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/1500Z 12.0N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 12.4N 109.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 12.9N 111.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 13.6N 113.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 14.4N 115.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 16.3N 120.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 18.7N 125.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 22.0N 131.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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