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Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Deep convection associated with Emilia has decreased in coverage
since this morning, and it appears that Emilia is finally well on
its way to becoming a remnant low.  The initial wind speed is set to
25 kt, which is supported by subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from both TAFB and SAB.

Emilia is currently over SSTs of 24-25 degrees Celsius and is moving
into a drier and more stable airmass.  As a result, the cyclone
should degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight, then
continue to spin down and dissipate within 72 hours.

The cyclone is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt.  A
west-northwestward motion should continue for a little longer but
the system will likely turn toward the west as it comes under the
influence of the easterly low-level tradewind flow. The latest
track envelope has shifted slightly northward and the updated NHC
track has been adjusted accordingly.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 19.7N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 20.3N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  02/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/0600Z 22.0N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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