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Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
800 PM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Emilia has been producing an area of deep convection southwest of
the low-level center, with cloud top temperatures of -60C to -70C
for the past few hours. As a result, Emilia is maintaining its
tropical cyclone status for now. The initial intensity remains 30 kt
based on the earlier ASCAT data. The cyclone should gradually
weaken in an increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment with the
shear increasing. Emilia should become a remnant low in 12 to 24
hours and the remnant low is expected to dissipate in 3 to 4
days.

The initial motion estimate is 295/10. Emilia and its remnants
should continue generally west-northwestward for a couple of days
before turning more westward in the low-level flow prior to
dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 18.4N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 18.8N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  02/0000Z 19.5N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/1200Z 20.2N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0000Z 20.9N 129.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/0000Z 21.2N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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