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Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
800 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018
 
Shortwave infrared imagery and an earlier 0855 UTC AMSR2 polar
orbiter pass show deep convective bursts, with associated
-78C cloud tops, developing near the surface center.  The microwave
pass also revealed improved curved banding to the south of the
center.  Based on these recent cloud pattern trends, it appears as
though the east-northeasterly shear is beginning to diminish, as
predicted by the SHIPS and LGEM intensity models.  The initial
intensity is increased to 50 kt on this advisory based on a blend of
the Dvorak subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier
SATCON analysis of 50 kt.
 
Some further strengthening is still possible during the next 24
hours or so as the shear continues to relax.  Afterward, decreasing
sea surface temperatures and a stabilizing air mass should initiate
a weakening trend.  A majority of the large-scale models indicate
that Emily will degenerate into a remnant low in 4 days, if not
sooner.  The NHC forecast follows suit and is based on the HCCA and
FSU Superensemble intensity consensus forecasts.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be 295/10 kt.  Emily continues
to be steered by a relatively narrow low to mid-level tropospheric
ridge situated to the north.  Global and hurricane models continue
to remain in good agreement with a general west-northwestward motion
until dissipation.  The official forecast is slightly to the left
of the previous advisory and closely follows the HCCA and TVCN
consensus models through day 5.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 16.2N 116.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 17.2N 119.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 17.8N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 18.5N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 20.3N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 21.7N 130.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/1200Z 22.7N 134.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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