Tropical Storm EMILIA (Text)


Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
300 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Convection has steadily increased and become better organized since
the previous advisory, especially in the inner-core region.
Satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC were T2.0/30 kt from both
TAFB and SAB, and T2.3/33 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Since that time,
however, convection near the low-level center has increased,
resulting in a steady increase in the raw ADT estimates to T2.5/35
kt. Based on the latter data, the initial intensity is increased to
35 kt at the advisory time, making Emilia the fifth tropical storm
so far this season as well as the fifth tropical storm so far during
the month of June.

The motion estimate is an uncertain 285/13 kt due to uncertainty in
the exact location of the low-level center. Passive microwave
satellite data, plus extrapolation of the previous motion, were
used to locate the center. However, recent GOES-16 nighttime cloud
physics satellite data suggest that the center may be developing
closer to the ball of strong convection in the southern portion of
the north-to-southwest elongated circulation. Having said that, the
latest model guidance remains in fair agreement on Emilia moving in
a general west-northwestward direction during the next 96 hours,
accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. Afterwards,
what should be a weakened and more shallow cyclone is expected to
be turned westward by a strong subtropical ridge and brisk easterly
tradewind flow. The GFS and UKMET models take Emilia more
northwestward into the strong subtropical ridge after 72 hours,
which seems unlikely. As a result, the new track forecast is similar
to the previous advisory, which lies near the southern edge of the
guidance envelope and close to a blend of the ECMWF and HWRF models.

Emilia's outflow is good to the west but restricted to the east due
to near 20 kt of easterly vertical wind shear. The shear is forecast
to decrease to around 15 kt by 48 hours and to less than 10 kt by 72
h and beyond. This should allow for some modest strengthening
during the next 48 h while the cyclone remains over SSTs greater
than 26 deg C. After that time, however, SSTs drop off sharply to
less than 25C, and the cooler water temperatures are expected to
combine with much drier mid-level to induce a steady weakening trend
despite the favorable shear environment. The new NHC intensity
forecast is essentially just the same as the previous advisory, and
is slightly higher the consensus intensity model IVCN.


INIT  28/0900Z 13.8N 111.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 14.4N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 15.2N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 15.9N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 16.5N 118.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 17.6N 121.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 19.1N 125.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 20.3N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Stewart


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:10:26 UTC