Tropical Depression SIX-E (Text)


Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
900 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Convection associated with the depression has become a little better
organized since the previous advisory as there has been a general
increase in banding over the northwestern portion of the
circulation. Despite the increase in organization, Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm
strength, so the initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this

The depression is currently located within an area of moderate
northeasterly shear, however, the shear is forecast to decrease over
the next couple of days.  During this time, the depression will be
traversing warm water and gradual strengthening is anticipated.  By
the weekend, the system is expected to begin moving over cooler
waters and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions which should
halt further intensification. Cool water and a more stable air mass
should result in weakening later in the period and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low by day 5.  It should be noted that
the 18Z GFS forecasts a significantly stronger cyclone than the
remainder of the global models and intensity guidance, and appears
to be an outlier. Since the strength of the GFS vortex is used as a
predictor in the SHIPS guidance, that intensity model also showed
more intensification this cycle.  For now, the NHC intensity
forecast follows the more conservative LGEM, HWRF, and ECMWF-based
SHIPS guidance, and is not too different than the previous official
forecast.  If other models trend toward the GFS solution of a
stronger storm, the NHC forecast may need to be adjusted in future

Satellite fixes indicate that the depression continues to move
west-northwestward around 13 kt.  The cyclone is located to the
south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern
Mexico.  This should keep the cyclone on a general west-
northwestward heading during the next several days, however the
system is forecast to slow down as the ridge weakens by the
weekend.  The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, except
for the aforementioned GFS which takes a deeper cyclone
farther northward as the ridge weakens.  The NHC track forecast is
near the various consensus models through 48 hours, but leans more
toward the ECMWF and HWRF after that time.


INIT  28/0300Z 13.6N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 14.3N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 15.2N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 15.9N 115.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 16.5N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 17.3N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 18.8N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Brown


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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2018 12:10:26 UTC