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Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018
300 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area south of
Manzanillo has become better defined during the day, with ample
banding features to the north and west of the center.  Thus, this
system is declared a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed
is set to 30 kt, which is based on an overnight scatterometer
pass and a satellite estimate of 30 kt from TAFB.

The center has not been particularly easy to track since it hasn't
had a lot of continuity.  Generally the overall system has been
moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt, so that will be the
initial motion.  A mid-level ridge over Mexico extending westward
into the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the depression
generally west-northwestward for the next several days, with some
gradual decrease in forward speed in a few days due to the ridge
weakening. The biggest uncertainty in the model guidance appears to
be in the shorter term, with several models indicating a
northwestward motion could begin soon.  That motion doesn't make
sense with the west-to-east orientation of the ridge, so the
official forecast is on the southern side of the guidance envelope
and the model consensus.

Moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to wane over the next few
days, which should promote strengthening since the depression is
over warm waters.  However, this intensification could be tempered
by marginal SSTs in 2 or 3 days, and an intrusion of drier mid-level
air as suggested by the GFS/ECMWF models.  Thus only a moderate
amount of strengthening is forecast, and the official forecast is
between the SHIPS model and the NOAA corrected consensus HCCA model.
In about 4 days, the depression will likely be over rather marginal
SSTs with nearby dry air.  These conditions will probably kill off
any remaining deep convection, causing the cyclone to degenerate
into a remnant low by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 13.3N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 14.1N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 15.1N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 16.0N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 16.6N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 18.5N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

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