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Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
200 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Daniel continues to generate a curved band of convection near the
center, although the cloud tops have warmed notably during the
past several hours.  A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds
of 40 kt in the southeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity has
been increased to that value.  The initial and forecast wind radii
have also been revised based on the scatterometer data.

The initial motion is now 340/10.  There is again no change in the
track forecast philosophy, as the various dynamical models remain in
good agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side
of a mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-18 hours, then encounter
the broad Pacific subtropical ridge to its north.  This should
result in a northwestward turn on Monday and a generally westward
motion on Tuesday and beyond.  The only appreciable change in the
guidance since the last advisory is that the cyclone is forecast to
move a little faster.  Thus, the official forecast is mostly an
update of the previous track with a slightly faster forward speed.

Daniel should cross the 26C isotherm in 12 h or less, and the
forecast track takes the system over progressively cooler water.
Thus, the new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening after
12 h, with the cyclone forecast to weaken to a depression by 36 h,
degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, and dissipate completely
between 96-120 h.  All of these events could occur earlier than
currently forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 16.9N 116.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 18.1N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 19.2N 118.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 19.8N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 20.2N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 20.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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