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Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018
800 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018

The cyclone has continued to maintain a small mass of deep
convection near the center during the past several hours, with the
low-level center under the convection. In addition, recent
microwave overpasses indicate that the system has developed a small
inner core.  Based on this and various satellite intensity estimates
of 35 kt, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Daniel.

The initial motion is now 350/9.  There is no change in the track
forecast philosophy.  The various dynamical models remain in good
agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side of a
mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-24 hours, causing the system to
move over cooler water and weaken.  The resulting more shallow
cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical
ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed
by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded
in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast is
again an update of the previous track.

The forecast track brings the center of Daniel over sea surface
temperatures below 26C in less than 24 h, and this should cause
weakening even though the storm is in a light shear environment.
Thus, the intensity forecast continues the scenario of the
previous forecast by indicating a little more strengthening,
followed by steady weakening over the cooler water.  The latest
dynamical models are consistent in showing the system dissipating
faster than previously forecast, and the new forecast follows that
trend by showing dissipation after 96 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 16.0N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 17.2N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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