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Tropical Storm Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
100 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

...TINY CARLOTTA HUGGING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND MOVING
AWAY FROM ACAPULCO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 100.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Tecpan De Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 100.5 West. Carlotta is
now moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue on Sunday.  On the forecast
track, the small core of Carlotta should move inland within the
warning area on Sunday.

The circulation of Carlotta has been interacting with land, and
surface observations from Mexico and satellite data indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is anticipated and the small
cyclone could dissipate at a faster rate if the entire circulation
moves over the high terrain of Mexico by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a very small area
near the center, and extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) to the
east and south of the center. Acapulco reported a wind gusts of 45
mph (74 km/h) a couple of hours ago when the center of Carlotta
moved nearby. Since then, winds have begun to rapidly decrease.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
along the Guerrero and southwestern Oaxaca coasts, including the
city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches
possible.  These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.
Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the
warning area, and these conditions are expected to continue into
Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of
the coast of southern Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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