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Tropical Storm Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
100 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

...CARLOTTA DRIFTING NORTHWARD...
...THREAT OF FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 99.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 99.3 West.  Carlotta is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A slow northward or
north-northwestward motion is expected later today and Sunday.  On
the forecast track, Carlotta is expected to move inland within the
warning area by late tonight or early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected before
landfall.  The small cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over
the high terrain of Mexico on Sunday after moving inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
along the Guerrero and southwestern Oaxaca coasts, including the
city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches
possible.  These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain.
Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area later today and continue through tomorrow.

SURF:  Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of
the coast of southern Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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