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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042018
0300 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.6N 100.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.8N 100.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N  99.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.2N  99.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 100.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


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