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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042018
2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2018
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 100.1W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 100.1W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.1N 100.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.3N 100.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.5N 100.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.7N 100.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 100.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 100.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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