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Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Data from a recent scatterometer pass indicated Carlotta still had
a small circulation, but that it was quite weak with maximum winds
near 25 kt.  Persistent northerly shear continues to affect the
depression.  The system has lacked much organized deep convection
for the past several hours and it is likely to degenerate into a
remnant low overnight.  Accordingly, the official forecast shows the
system becoming post-tropical by early Monday.

Based on the ASCAT observations, the center has been re-positioned a
little to the southeast of the previous track.  The initial motion
estimate is now 300/6 kt.  High pressure to the north of Carlotta
should maintain a general west-northwestward track for the next day
or two.

The main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the
southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.
These rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow
over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  Consult products
issued by your national meteorological service.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 17.1N 101.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 17.5N 102.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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