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Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

The system has become quite disorganized this morning and, even with
high-resolution visible satellite images, it is extremely difficult
to locate a center.  Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB continue to
decrease and the intensity estimate is lowered to 35 kt kt for this
advisory.  Hopefully, we will receive data from some upcoming ASCAT
scatterometer overpasses in a few hours that will help us better
locate the center of circulation.  Carlotta is likely to continue
to spin down due to the interaction with mountainous terrain and
the system should degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow, or sooner.

Given the uncertainty in the location, the initial motion estimate,
305/6 kt, is also highly uncertain.  The steering currents around
Carlotta remain weak, but the cyclone is expected to move slowly
northwestward between a couple of mid-level anticyclones.  The
official forecast is a little to the left of the previous one but
still north of most of the track guidance for the first 12 to 24
hours of the forecast.  Most of the track models lose the analyzed
vortex after that time.

It must again be emphasized that, regardless of the exact track of
Carlotta, the main threat of heavy rainfall and potential of
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides continue over the
southern parts of Guerrero and Michoacan.  The rainfall threat will
be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra
Madre mountains of Mexico.  For details, please see products issued
by your local weather office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 17.2N 101.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 17.7N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 18.0N 102.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/0000Z 18.3N 102.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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