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Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018

The center of the depression has been difficult to locate, although
GOES-16 infrared satellite images and radar data from Acapulco
suggest that the system as a whole has not moved very much.  Deep
convection has increased over the past few hours, but it bears
little association with the estimated center and is focused
primarily where low-level convergence is maximized near the coast.
Although some strengthening is possible over the next couple of
days, moderate northerly shear and the cyclone's proximity to land
will likely limit the amount of intensification that can occur.
The SHIPS guidance only shows modest strengthening, and the global
models don't really deepen the low much, if any, before it moves
inland.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS
and HCCA models and is a little lower than the previous forecast at
48 h.  A 72-hour point is provided inland for continuity, but the
cyclone could dissipate before that time.

The depression is currently stationary in a region absent of
steering currents.  However, as a low- to mid-level trough moves
northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas in the coming
days, that feature should cause the depression to drift
northeastward and then northward, moving inland over southern Mexico
between 48-72 hours.  The new NHC forecast is slightly east of the
previous one, following the preponderance of the available guidance.

As noted before, there is lower-than-normal confidence in both the
track and intensity forecasts.  Changes to the forecast, as well as
modifications to the warned areas, could be required in subsequent
advisories if the location and size of the cyclone become clearer.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 15.3N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 15.4N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 15.5N  99.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 15.8N  99.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 16.2N  99.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 16.9N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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